Обзор рынка катанки — 18.10.2017

Проседание мировых цен на длинномерный прокат пока компенсируется сезонным ослаблением гривны, поэтому украинские расценки на катанку удерживаются у достигнутых ранее уровней.

В сентябре расценки на катанку в Украине пережили очередной подъем, однако к середине октября вновь стабилизировались, что вовсе не удивительно, так как украинский рынок длинномерного проката полностью отыгрывает тенденции рынка внешнего, а там в последние недели наблюдается заметное снижение ценовых уровней. Таким образом, дальнейший рост отечественных расценок на катанку представляется маловероятным.

Период спада цен на мировых торговых площадках совпал с сезонным ослаблением гривны, поэтому долларовый эквивалент внутренних расценок на катанку также уменьшался синхронно с экспортными котировками. Это позволило металлургам пока не слишком задумываться о необходимости уменьшения отпускных цен для внутренних потребителей. Теперь от ситуации на внешних рынках зависит то, как будет развиваться ситуация в дальнейшем. Пока цены на катанку продолжают снижаться, а значит, рано или поздно вопрос об уменьшении ценовых уровней может возникнуть и в Украине. Впрочем, металлурги, безусловно, будут тянуть до последнего, надеясь на новый разворот внешних тенденций. Те, в свою очередь, традиционно во многом зависят от ситуации на рынке металла Китая, где сейчас решается вопрос о том, сохранятся ли дотации на развитие инфраструктурных объектов в прежнем объеме. Рынки опасаются, что нет. Это толкает цены на руду и металл вниз. Впрочем, все может измениться в случае положительного для строительной отрасли Поднебесной решения китайских властей.

Украинские цены на арматуру и катанку (для партии металла массой 5 т, с НДС)

Рис. 1. Украинские цены на арматуру и катанку (для партии металла массой 5 т, с НДС)

Котировки арматуры, катанки и квадратной заготовки при поставках на экспорт

Рис. 2. Котировки арматуры, катанки и квадратной заготовки при поставках на экспорт

Сравнение цен внутреннего рынка (без НДС) и экспортных расценок на катанку

Рис. 3. Сравнение цен внутреннего рынка (без НДС) и экспортных расценок на катанку

Пока же предсказать динамику внешних рынков металла совсем не просто. Отметим лишь, что приближение зимнего сезона само по себе несколько уменьшает спрос на металлопрокат в КНР и мире, что, в свою очередь, не способствует пока развороту отрицательного тренда в сторону нового мощного роста ценовых уровней. Наоборот, котировки руды, а вслед за ними и расценки на металлопрокат продолжают демонстрировать в целом негативные тенденции.

Таким образом, на сегодняшний день нет предпосылок для масштабного изменения внутренних цен на катанку. Впрочем, украинские расценки в данном сегменте все же выглядят пока несколько завышенными. Если негативные тенденции на внешних рынках сохранят свою силу, то со временем возможно некоторое проседание ценовых уровней и на отечественном рынке катанки.

Максим Рассоха

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