Обзор рынка нержавеющей стали — 14.08.2018

Основным фактором, создающим и подпитывающим состояние повышенной волатильности на мировом рынке никеля, является масштабная торговая война между США и Китаем. Впрочем, она влияет не только на никель. В последнее время пошли вразброс котировки практически всего цветмета, причем их движение имеет выраженный разнонаправленный характер.

В зависимости от того, какие новости приносит очередное публичное выступление американских или китайских властей, мировой рынок никеля реагирует моментальным подъемом или спадом расценок. В высокой степени подверженный спекулятивным настроениям рынок никеля всегда отличался заметной волатильностью, но теперь изменения цен на нем приобретают характер труднопрогнозируемых резких обрушений и моментальных скачков вверх. Все это происходит на фоне остающегося неизменным прогноза о стабильном повышении производства нержавейки в текущем году, гарантирующем на ближайшие месяцы выраженный дефицит никеля. Объяснить подобное можно только высокой долей спекулятивного элемента в сделках по купле-продаже никеля, когда биржевые игроки одномоментно переходят от оптимизма к состоянию краткосрочной паники, роняя цены или снова взвинчивая их.

Динамика цен на нержавеющую сталь марки 304 2В (08Х18Н10) на рынках ЮВА и ЕС

Рис. 1. Динамика цен на нержавеющую сталь марки 304 2В (08Х18Н10) на рынках ЮВА и ЕС

Динамика котировок никеля (LME) и цен нержавеющей стали марки 304 2В (ЮВА, CFR)

Рис. 2. Динамика котировок никеля (LME) и цен нержавеющей стали марки 304 2В (ЮВА, CFR)

Последний такой скачок произошел в начале текущего месяца после жесткого заявления Д. Трампа о том, что анонсированные им ранее заградительные пошлины, которые должны коснуться китайских товаров на сумму в 200 млрд долларов, увеличиваются с 10 до 25 %. В результате в течение всего лишь двух дней цены на никель на Лондонской бирже металлов упали сразу на 655 $/т, а в последующие два дня восстановились на 625 $/т на фоне улучшения финансовых показателей США, которые перевесили по важности предыдущий негатив. Все это происходит в период обычного для летнего периода падения активности рынка цветмета, когда на нем должно царить традиционное затишье.

Тем временем на рынке нержавеющей стали ЕС в начале августа сложилась весьма противоречивая, в чем-то даже парадоксальная ситуация. Квоты на ввоз в ЕС нержавеющего проката, введенные там не так давно, судя по всему, должны исчерпаться задолго до конца года. После этого импортная нержавейка попадает под действие заградительных  тарифов (25 %). Согласно задумке европейских металлургов, эти меры (квоты и тарифы) должны были помочь существенно поднять расценки на европейскую нержавеющую сталь. В действительности же ситуация получилась полностью противоположной тому, что задумывалось. Заметная часть европейских потребителей поспешила срочно разместить заказы на поставку максимального количества недорого импортного металла, пока это еще было возможно. В результате спрос на европейскую нержавейку снизился, и о повышении расценок на нее пока остается только мечтать. Впрочем, через какое-то время количество заказов нержавеющего проката за рубежом, скорее всего, начнет падать. По мере того, как будет приближаться срок введения заградительных тарифов, риск вероятности, что заказанный металл придет уже после того, как они начнут действовать, будет расти.

Если же говорить о мировом рынке нержавеющей стали в целом, то спрос на данный металл продолжает расти, несмотря на то, что цены на никель сохраняют в целом позитивную динамику. Скорее всего, в ближайшие месяцы такая тенденция сохранится.

Издательство "Металлика"

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